May 2023 Macro and Market Musings: Monetary Policy and Inflation

May 17, 2023 Since early 2022, the Federal Reserve has been raising its policy interest rate at breakneck speed by a full five percentage points. Inflation has indeed subsided a bit, but both price levels and percentage changes remain stubbornly high. When will inflation finally go back to normal? What’s the path forward for monetary … Continue reading May 2023 Macro and Market Musings: Monetary Policy and Inflation

Continue Reading May 2023 Macro and Market Musings: Monetary Policy and Inflation

Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57

April 14, 2023 Welcome to a new installment of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. Please check out the SWR landing page for a summary of and a link to the other posts. Today’s topic is homeownership. I’ve already made the case that not just rental properties but even homeownership can be a great tool in … Continue reading Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57

Continue Reading Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57

March 2023 Market and Moral Hazard Musings

March 16, 2023 After the tumultuous year 2022, it looked like 2023 was off to a great start. But banks threw a monkey wrench into the machine, with the S&P almost erasing the impressive YTD gains, several bank failures, and the prospect of a worldwide banking crisis that all changed. So folks contacted me and … Continue reading March 2023 Market and Moral Hazard Musings

Continue Reading March 2023 Market and Moral Hazard Musings

The Basics of FIRE

March 10, 2023 After seven years of blogging in the personal finance and FIRE community, I realize that there’s one type of post I’ve always avoided: How to explain FIRE to a complete newbie. Until now, I’ve outsourced that task and simply referred to the Links Page. But where’s a good overview, all in a … Continue reading The Basics of FIRE

Continue Reading The Basics of FIRE

Evaluating Annuities, Pensions, and Social Security – SWR Series Part 56

February 6, 2023 Welcome to another installment of my Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. See the landing page of this series here for an intro and a summary of all posts I’ve written so far. On the menu today is an issue that will impact most retirees: we all likely receive supplemental cash flows in retirement, … Continue reading Evaluating Annuities, Pensions, and Social Security – SWR Series Part 56

Continue Reading Evaluating Annuities, Pensions, and Social Security – SWR Series Part 56

Discussing Retirement Bucket Strategies with Fritz Gilbert – SWR Series Part 55

January 25, 2023 Welcome to another part of my Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. Today’s topic: Bucket Strategies in retirement. As you know, my blogging buddy Fritz Gilbert has written extensively on this topic at his Retirement Manifesto blog, for example: And likewise, I have written about my skepticism of bucket strategies in Part 48 of … Continue reading Discussing Retirement Bucket Strategies with Fritz Gilbert – SWR Series Part 55

Continue Reading Discussing Retirement Bucket Strategies with Fritz Gilbert – SWR Series Part 55

Passive income through option writing: Part 10 – Year 2022 Review

January 9, 2023 Happy New Year, everyone! I haven’t written any updates on my put-writing strategy in a while, so I thought this is an excellent opportunity to review the year 2022 performance and some of the changes I have made since my last write-up in late 2021. Let’s take a look… 2022 Performance After … Continue reading Passive income through option writing: Part 10 – Year 2022 Review

Continue Reading Passive income through option writing: Part 10 – Year 2022 Review

A Post-Mortem for a Crypto Exchange: Is FTX worse than Bernie Madoff?

December 7, 2022 The number one story in the crypto world this year (or decade? or century?) must be the FTX crypto platform collapse. It’s mindblowing how quickly FTX went from one of the largest crypto exchanges with a 150-second Superbowl commercial in February 2022, naming rights to sports arenas, numerous A-list celebrity endorsements, etc., … Continue reading A Post-Mortem for a Crypto Exchange: Is FTX worse than Bernie Madoff?

Continue Reading A Post-Mortem for a Crypto Exchange: Is FTX worse than Bernie Madoff?

Who’s afraid of a housing crash?

November 16, 2022 After the big jump in the stock market last week, everybody’s worries should be over, right? Well, maybe not. Real estate looks a bit shaky now! Prices have come down just a notch, but is there more to follow? Are the wheels coming off? Is the market going to crash? What’s the … Continue reading Who’s afraid of a housing crash?

Continue Reading Who’s afraid of a housing crash?

Could 2022 be worse than 2001?

November 2, 2022 In my post three weeks ago, I happily declared that the 4% Rule works again, thanks to the much more attractive equity and bond valuations. It’s always fun to deliver pleasant news. But keep in mind, everyone, that this refers to today’s retirees with their slightly depleted portfolios. But how about the … Continue reading Could 2022 be worse than 2001?

Continue Reading Could 2022 be worse than 2001?

The 4% Rule Works Again! An Update on Dynamic Withdrawal Rates based on the Shiller CAPE – SWR Series Part 54

October 12, 2022 As promised in the “Building a Better CAPE Ratio” post last week, here’s an update on how I like to use the CAPE ratio calculations in the context of my Safe Withdrawal Rate Research. I have studied CAPE-based withdrawal rates in the past (see Part 11, Part 18, Part 24, Part 25) … Continue reading The 4% Rule Works Again! An Update on Dynamic Withdrawal Rates based on the Shiller CAPE – SWR Series Part 54

Continue Reading The 4% Rule Works Again! An Update on Dynamic Withdrawal Rates based on the Shiller CAPE – SWR Series Part 54

Recession Or Not?

August 5, 2022 Last week we got the Q2 GDP numbers and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirmed that GDP has now declined for two consecutive quarters. What do I make of that? Are we in a recession now? Since several people asked me to comment on this issue, here are my thoughts… In … Continue reading Recession Or Not?

Continue Reading Recession Or Not?

Hedging Against Inflation and Monetary Policy Risk

July 5, 2022 Over the last few decades, we’ve become accustomed to a negative correlation between stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds. Bonds used to serve as a great diversifier against macroeconomic risk. Specifically, the last four downturns in 1991, 2001, 2007-2009, and 2020 were all so-called “demand-side” recessions where the drop in GDP went hand-in-hand … Continue reading Hedging Against Inflation and Monetary Policy Risk

Continue Reading Hedging Against Inflation and Monetary Policy Risk

The Bear Market is here. What Now?

June 15, 2022 With the recent confirmation of a Bear Market finally taking hold, I’ve gotten some requests to comment on the situation: Are we going to have a recession? What’s my inflation outlook? What to expect from the Federal Reserve? What does this all mean for us in the FIRE community? Let’s take a … Continue reading The Bear Market is here. What Now?

Continue Reading The Bear Market is here. What Now?

Hedging against Sequence Risk through a “Retiree-Saver Investment Pact” – SWR Series Part 53

June 6, 2022 In this year’s April Fool’s post, I marketed a made-up crypto coin that would completely hedge against Sequence Risk, the dreaded destroyer of retirement dreams. Once and for all! Most readers would have figured out this was a hoax because that complete hedge against Sequence Risk is still elusive after so many posts … Continue reading Hedging against Sequence Risk through a “Retiree-Saver Investment Pact” – SWR Series Part 53

Continue Reading Hedging against Sequence Risk through a “Retiree-Saver Investment Pact” – SWR Series Part 53

Crypto is probably a bad investment!

April 25, 2022 If you remember my April Fools Day post from a few weeks ago, I poked fun at the proliferation of new crypto coins. Most of them are scams. But what about the mainstream crypto coins, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.? Are they a good investment? What’s not to like about a 100%+ annualized … Continue reading Crypto is probably a bad investment!

Continue Reading Crypto is probably a bad investment!

Introducing the ERN-approved Crypto Coin

April 1, 2022 If you’re familiar with my work on Safe Withdrawal Rates, you’ll know that the number one concern for retirees is Sequence of Return Risk. Well, hopefully, this will soon be a thing of the past. I’m now ready to announce the complete “retirement” (pun intended) of my Safe Withdrawal Rate Research because, … Continue reading Introducing the ERN-approved Crypto Coin

Continue Reading Introducing the ERN-approved Crypto Coin

Timing Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 52

March 21, 2022 Last year in Part 49 of the Safe Withdrawal Series, I wrote a post about using leverage in retirement, and in today’s post, I like to explore some additional issues.  A quick recap, the appeal of using leverage in retirement is that we would borrow against the portfolio instead of liquidating assets. … Continue reading Timing Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 52

Continue Reading Timing Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 52

Retirement in a High-Inflation Environment – SWR Series Part 51

February 28, 2022 What a difference a year makes! In late 2020, only about 16 months ago, I felt the urge to comment on the then-fashionable discussion of how low inflation would impact retirees. See Part 41 – Can we raise our Safe Withdrawal Rate when inflation is low? of my SWR Series. Feels like … Continue reading Retirement in a High-Inflation Environment – SWR Series Part 51

Continue Reading Retirement in a High-Inflation Environment – SWR Series Part 51

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